History, the old cliché goes, has a funny way of repeating itself. And like most clichés, this one is true. Just take the case of South Africa's beleaguered president. It was back in October 2005 - almost five years ago to the month - that Jacob Zuma became the rallying point in the revolution against then-ANC leader and South African president Thabo Mbeki.
In the preceding months, businessman Schabir Shaik had been found guilty of, among other things, being involved in a corrupt relationship with Zuma. Subsequent to this, Zuma had been charged with corruption and sacked from his position as the country's deputy president. His downfall had then been confirmed by his being forced to step down from all ANC leadership positions while charges were pending. He was a goner. Then came the rebellion.
Delegates arrived at the ANC mid-term National General Council in Tshwane, determined to reverse the decision to strip him of his party power. As far as they were concerned, this was a continuation of Mbeki's purging of leaders he perceived as being threats. History records that this successful rebellion was the beginning of the attrition of Mbeki's power and the revival of Zuma's fortunes. After Tshwane, the previously feared and unassailable Mbeki was never able to regain his grip on power. It all ended badly when he was toppled at the Polokwane conference in December 2007 and then, humiliatingly, was ejected from the Union Buildings nine months later.
Five years on, Zuma, the beneficiary of the Tshwane rebellion, finds himself going into an NGC unsure of his grip on power. It is he who is now under siege, much like Mbeki was five years ago. Zuma will have to do some deft political work if he is to prevent the inevitable slip of power from his hands. He is already facing a low-level insurgency within the party, as many leaders openly deride him and the previously loyal unions taunt him about his nocturnal energies. This time, however, he will not have an Mbeki to blame for his woes. He will be a victim of his own self-destruction and inability to appreciate it when life gives you a second chance to redeem yourself. He has been the prime conspirator in an anti-Zuma campaign.
In the 16 months he has been in power, Zuma has been consistent in one aspect: failing to live to up to the nation's low expectations of him. Even his close allies, who genuinely believed he had the potential to rise above himself, have been left aghast at his lack of leadership outside of his Nkandla homestead. Hence the revolt that has been creeping up on him. Already, the ANC Youth League has thrown down the gauntlet - announcing that the conviction of its president, Julius Malema, by an internal disciplinary committee be nullified. This means the league is spoiling for a head-to-head confrontation with Zuma, who initiated the process earlier this year. The league - which once cravenly backed Zuma - now ridicules him.
On the other side of the ideological divide you have Cosatu, which has made it clear it does not want to be treated like an abused spouse. The trade union federation knows its power well, having been the engine behind Mbeki's ouster and Zuma's rise. The federation's leaders had expected to be treated with more respect than they were during Mbeki's time. But they have found that their proximity to the new ANC leadership has borne no fruit. Instead, fault lines between them and the so-called nationalists in the ANC have deepened.
The "nationalists" have treated Cosatu and the SACP with the same suspicions as Mbeki did, alleging that their agenda is to "capture" the ANC and turn it into a socialist organisation. And then you throw into this mix Zuma's propensity to humour everyone and not take any decisions. This has frustrated Cosatu, which invested heavily in the campaign to get Zuma elected, in the belief that labour's cause would have a more sympathetic ear. If there is any group that feels let down and betrayed by Zuma's rule, it is the trade union movement. Organised labour has been betrayed on policy shifts, the war against corruption, the non-functioning of the alliance and Zuma's addiction to gift-bearing businessmen who seem to have more access to him than those who propelled him to power.
Then you have the general disgruntlement with Zuma among ANC members and supporters who believe he is in power to have fun and to increase the size of the spousal office. Unlike him, they have got over the Umshini Wam fad and want more from their president.
Zuma is well aware that power is slipping away from him. According to insiders, he has started to display the signs of paranoia that afflicted his predecessor. Many in the higher echelons now believe it will take a miracle for Zuma to make it back for a second term as ANC president in 2012. Like Thabo Mbeki's Tshwane experience, the countdown for Zuma could well begin in Durban in a fortnight.
Source: Times Live
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