Analysis: Hurdles in the way of Madagascar's new deal

It will take some time for Madagascar's feuding political rivals to implement their breakthrough agreement, but while hopes are high that the newly signed deal will pave the way to reconciliation and stability, there are still some serious hurdles. "I wish this were the end of the political conflict - but alas, there is lots of scope for continuing struggles," Stephen Ellis, professor of social sciences at the Free University of Amsterdam and senior researcher at the African Studies Centre in Leiden, the Netherlands, told IRIN.

The power-sharing deal signed in Maputo, capital of Mozambique, on 9 August brought Andry Rajoelina, former mayor of Madagascar's capital, Antananarivo, face to face with ousted President Marc Ravalomanana for the first time since political violence began in January 2009. The standoff culminated in what the international community condemned as a "coup-style" change of leadership on 17 March. After months of failed mediation attempts, the latest talks, facilitated by former Mozambican president Joaquim Chissano on behalf of the international community under the auspices of the African Union (AU), were widely hailed. "This was a clear sign that the leaders are now committed to seeing an end to the political crisis," said a statement on 11 August by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), a think-tank based in Pretoria, South Africa.

The Indian Ocean Island's main political factions pledged to work towards an interim government, put an end to months of political violence and hold fresh elections within 15 months. Former heads of state Didier Ratsiraka and Albert Zaphy were also signatories to the document The process of constitutional revision could be vital in determining the success of the agreement. "Elections will be important in Madagascar. However, they will be important because of the consensus-building they bring. This should not be confused with democratic consolidation, or with building strong institutions. Madagascar first needs to survive a new constitutional convention and referendum. One step at a time," Marcus said. "There will be more demonstrations during these 15 months. That in itself is ok. The important part is that key constituent groups remain committed to the process, and that the populace maintains its current level of patience."

The ISS was more optimistic: "It is likely that some disagreements will arise in the selection of members of the government, but if the recently ended talks are anything to go by, there is sufficient political will to ensure that eventually this transitional authority will be formed."

Source: IRINNEWS